Complex Population Dynamics Web Page

Known typos:

1. In Chapter 9 on the larch budmoth dynamics, equations for the parasitism model (p. 235) and the parasitism-quality model (9.8) on p. 236. The parasitoid equation is missing a negative sign inside the exponential. It should be

                                      

Data files on which the analyses in the book are based

Data files are here: data.zip

NLTSM software

(NonLinear Time-Series Modeling)

This is software that I developed, for my personal use, to automate my brand of nonlinear time-series analysis of population data. I make it available to others purely as a courtesy, free of charge and free of responsibility.

Disclaimer: I do not in any way guarantee or warrant that this program will perform correctly or meangfully by any definition imaginable, or give any reasonable results, or that it does not have any bugs, etc, etc. You are using it at your own risk, and I will not be repsonsible for any use, misuse, abuse, or any other -use of this program; its results, and any other of its effects, including any criminal or legal, commercial (or not) use anybody on Earth, or in the Universe, can think of.

Here are some rudimentary instructions for using the program.

1. Download program files: NLTSM.zip

2. Double click on NLTSM.exe. The program should load a bunch of windows and do some graphs and analyses using the start.dat file (this is one of the LBM datasets).

3. Experiment with numbers in winsize.dat to find the size of the initial screen that is comfortable for you. You can use noninteger values there.

4. Click on various items on the toolbars to find out what they do. All windows but "Analysis" recalculate whenever something is changed (even if you simply drag the whole window). The "Analysis" window is recalculated only when you click on "Crossvalidation" or "set baselag" item under Analysis menu (because crossvalidation may take some time to recalculate, especially for longer time series, I decided not to refresh this window every time something is changed).

5. You will notice that there are two ways to import data: from file and from the clipboard. If you use file, then ensure that data are in a single column. I found that the most convenient way is to copy data from an Excel file (such as the data files posted) and then use the “Get data from … ClipBoard” item under File.

6. Remember that no zeros or negative values are allowed! Also, only numerical values (no text!) should be in the data column. If these conditions are not satisfied, then the application simply crashes (the NLTSM window implodes and disappears). If this happens, check your data for any irregularities. Two periods on the same line will also cause implosion.

7. The only way to print is by grabbing the screen: hit alt-PrintScreen, import (paste) the screen into, say, MS Word.doc, and then print from there.

8. Read my book to find out about the logic of the analysis (see particularly Chapter 7). There are many NLTSM screens in the book which show what sorts of things can be done.

9. You may define a program item in the program manager that will start the application. For example, create a link to NLTSM.exe, and add the butterfy icon. Then you can simply click on this link to get the program going.