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Secular Cycles

Peter Turchin

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

University of Connecticut

Storrs, CT, USA

and

Sergey A. Nefedov

Institute of History and Archaeology

Russian Academy of Sciences

Ekaterinburg, Russia

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

2 Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150-1485)

3 The Tudor Cycle (1485-1730)

4 France: the Capetian Cycle (1150-1450)

5 France: the Valois Cycle (145-1660)

6 Rome: The Republican cycle (350-30 BCE)

7 The Cycle of the Principate

8 Russia: the Muscovite Cycle

9 The Romanov Cycle

10 General conclusion

Final text revision: 14.VI.2008 PDF file here (complete text)

From the back cover:

Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations—what the authors call secular cycles.

Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory, first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory’s specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change, and more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.

An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

Peter Turchin is professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and adjunct professor of mathematics at the University of Connecticut. His books include Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton). Sergey Nefedov is senior research scientist at the Institute of History and Archaeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. His books include The Concept of Demographic Cycles.