Secular Cycles
Peter
Turchin
Department
of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
University
of Connecticut
Storrs,
CT, USA
and
Sergey
A. Nefedov
Institute
of History and Archaeology
Russian
Academy of Sciences
Ekaterinburg,
Russia
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Medieval England: The Plantagenet
Cycle (1150-1485)
3 The Tudor Cycle (1485-1730)
4 France: the Capetian Cycle (1150-1450)
5 France: the Valois Cycle (145-1660)
6 Rome: The Republican cycle (350-30
BCE)
7 The Cycle of the Principate
8 Russia: the Muscovite Cycle
9 The Romanov Cycle
10 General conclusion
Final text revision:
14.VI.2008 PDF
file here
Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory, first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory’s specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change, and more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.
An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.
Peter Turchin is professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and adjunct professor of mathematics at the University of Connecticut. His books include Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton). Sergey Nefedov is senior research scientist at the Institute of History and Archaeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. His books include The Concept of Demographic Cycles.